2012 Oscar Nominee Predictions

The Oscar nominees will be announced tomorrow morning. Thus I am continuing my annual ritual of trying to predict the nominees. I did not do so good last year, missing at least one nominee in each category, although I did get 9 of 10 Best Picture nominees correct. This year will be more difficult as the number of Best Picture nominees is not known beforehand. The new rules stipulate a minimum of 5 nominees and a maximum of 10 nominees, depending on how many reach a certain threshold of votes. Alternates are films/people I think have the best chance outside of my top picks. Wish lists are films/people I feel deserve a nomination that probably won't get one.


Best Picture

The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Alternates: Moneyball, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Tree of Life

Wish List: Bridesmaids, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

These six are pretty much locks for a nomination, so the question here is how many nominees will make the threshold. Most people are predicting 7 nominees, but I'm just not sold on Moneyball hitting the threshold, nor am I convinced of Fincher's DGA nomination carrying over to the Oscars. The Tree of Life might sneak in, but Malick's lack of a DGA nomination is problematic since that's a group where he would tend to have the most support. So I'm playing it safe and sticking to only six nominees here. I wish Bridesmaids could sneak in, and it probably would've under the previous rules, but I don't see it having much chance of getting enough 1st place votes.


Best Director

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Alternates: David Fincher, The  Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Wish List: Brad Bird, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Allen, Hazanavicus, Payne, and Scorsese all were nominated at both the DGA and Golden Globes, so they are pretty certain guarantees. The big surprise at the DGA's was Fincher's nomination for Dragon Tattoo. However, I think this will mirror Nolan's DGA nom from last year and get passed over at the Oscars. Spielberg is the safer choice and I think that's where the Oscars will go. Malick has an outside shot, but it would be pretty odd for him to miss out at the DGA's, but then get nominated for an Oscar.


Best Lead Actor

George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Alternates: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Demian Bichir, A Better Life

Wish List: Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo; Owen Wilson, Midight in Paris

Clooney, Pitt, and Dujardin are definitely in. The question then comes to Fassbender, who missed out on a SAG nomination, and Dicaprio, whose film was not well received overall. Oldman seems to have some momentum in the race and the well regarded actor has amazingly never been nominated before. There's a very, very good chance he will get in, but I'm just not sure who he will replace. Bichir was excellent and received a surprise SAG nomination, but very little support elsewhere.


Best Lead Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Alternates: Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Wish List: Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

I'm pretty confident about this group of five, which is pretty much the same group since the awards season began. Theron received some initial attention, but it has fizzled out. Mara could sneak in if Fincher's DGA nomination actually is a sign that Dragon Tattoo has more support than previously thought. If she does, then it will probably be at Close or Swinton's expense. I'm surprised and disappointed Knightley couldn't get more traction during awards season for her dynamic performance.


Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Alternates: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

Wish List: Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris; Elle Fanning, Super 8

There are fewer locks in this category than the others. It may only be a 6 woman race (Redgrave is a longshot), but the only nominees I consider to be certainties are Spencer and Chastain.  Bejo is probably good, but there is a small chance that category confusion (is she lead or supporting) could doom her. McTeer is probably in with both SAG and Globe nods (although Mila Kunis) missed last year. Among the remaining two, I picked Woodley over McCarthy because she has a chance to get some trickle down support from Clooney.


Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Alternates: Nick Nolte, Warrior; Ben Kingsley, Hugo

wish List: Patton Oswalt, Young Adult; Alan Rickman, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Now this is a bizarre category this year. The SAG nominations completely upended the race. They omitted early frontrunner Brooks and included Armie Hammer (for J.  Edgar) and Nolte. The Globes put Brooks back in and added Viggo Mortensen. It's not always the best idea to bet against the SAGs as a predictor, but I just don't see Nolte or especially Hammer getting in at the Oscars. Kingsley could sneak in riding on a Hugo wave.


Best Original Screenplay

The Artist
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Alternates: Young Adult, 50/50

Wish List: Margin Call

Young Adult and 50/50 (along with Win Win)  received attention from the WGA, but The Artist, A Separation, and Beginners were not eligible there and I'm petty confident they'll swallow up those spots. If there's a surprise, previous winner Diablo Cody could get in for Young Adult.


Best Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Alternates: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March

Wish List: We Bought a Zoo, A Dangerous Method

Another test of how much support Dragon Tattoo has. I wouldn't be surprised to see it in, but I think (and hope) that it won't make it. These five seem like really strong certainties, although I wish something could get in ahead of the incredibly overrated script for The Help.


And that's it for this year. As usual I'll be skipping predictions for all the tech  categories. All I'd be doing is copying the guild nominees anyways. We'll see how I did tomorrow morning.