Predictions for the 2011 Academy Awards

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Academy Awards. I've made comments in three categories. Will Win covers what I think the Academy will pick. Should Win is what I would pick among the nominees. Snubbed is who/what I think should've made the cut.


Best Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Will Win: With wins in all three major guild awards (PGA, DGA, SAG), The King's Speech victory is all but assured. Only one film (Apollo 13) has previously won all three of those awards and lost Best Picture.

Should Win: Christopher Nolan's Inception completely rewrote the book on what a Hollywood blockbuster can and should be. No more need to turn off your brain to enjoy a kick ass, exciting action ride. Inception is a grand achievement in combining smart and enthralling cinema and is the most deserving of this year's group of nominees.

Snubbed: It's no surprise that it fell off the Academy's radar, but Derek Cianfrance's Blue Valentine was a brutally realistic depiction of a failing marriage. It's dark and depressing, but it stirred up stronger emotions than any other film in 2011 and contained the two best performances of the year.


Best Director

Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

Will Win: I've debated about this one for a long time. The safe bet is to say Hooper will win along with his film. He did win the DGA award and all of the awards momentum has gone to The King's Speech. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Oscars will follow suit with the BAFTA's and give this award to David Fincher.

Should Win: I've long admired the work of Aronofsky, Russell, and Fincher, but it was the Coens who most distinguished themselves with their colorful remake of an overrated classic. They managed to deliver a beautiful old-fashioned western, while still infusing it with their own sly sensibilities.

Snubbed: There were a few snubs this year, including Derek Cianfrance for his wonderfully understated work on Blue Valentine and Martin Scorsese for his passionate thriller Shutter Island. However, the biggest snub was the omission of Christopher Nolan YET AGAIN. This is a man who now has three nominations from the Director's Guild, but nothing from the Oscars. His brilliant and imaginative work deserves recognition.


Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

Will Win: Uh, Colin Firth. He will win this. Easiest prediction of the night. Don't question me on this. I will empty my bank account out to wager on Firth against you. Bridges may have had a shot if he hadn't won last year.

Should Win: All very good performances here, but there's a reason Colin Firth is a lock to win. He was just that good.

Snubbed: Ryan Gosling's heartfelt, but admirably subtle work in Blue Valentine was the best performance by a male this year. I have no issues with any of the five nominees, but he was better than all of them.


Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)


Will Win: I'm going with the smart money, which is on Natalie Portman after she made a clean sweep of the pre-Oscar awards. The only thing that makes me nervous is if the Academy wants to give Bening a career Oscar.

Should Win: Just like her co-star Ryan Gosling, Michelle Williams did an amazing job at portraying the awful emotional turmoil her character was going through without loud hysterics. Her nomination was a triumph for natural, understated acting, which often goes ignored come awards season.

Snubbed: It may seem like an odd choice since she actually was nominated, but Hailee Steinfeld's nomination in Supporting Actress is actually pretty insulting and not worthy of the great performance she gave. She was clearly the lead in True Grit and the only reason she got nominated in Supporting is because of her age. Her performance was one of the best of the year for anyone of any age.


Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Will Win: Melissa Leo is the clear frontrunner here and I think she'll take home the Oscar. I'm a little uncertain, because this is a category known for upsets (Binoche over Bacall, Harden over Hudson) and there has been some talk that Hailee Steinfeld could pull off an upset. I also wouldn't be surpsied to see a King's Speech wave carry Helena Bonham Carter.

Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld is nominated in the wrong category, but that's not her fault. She gave the best performance of anyone on this list. I love Leo as an actress, but even her co-star Amy Adams was better.

Snubbed: This is one category where my own personal list differs with the Academy the most, so it is hard to choose from the several people who I think were snubbed, but I will go with Rebecca Hall, who gave two great performances this year in The Town and Please Give. In these two wildly different films, she brought a winning, empathetic personality to the screen.


Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Will Win: Christian Bale has won pretty much every single award you can win at this point and is all but a certainty to win the Oscar. the only (very small) chance of an upset is if a King's Speech wave takes hold and carries Geoffrey Rush with it.

Should Win: Bale did an amazing job of transforming himself into a very different role, but if people had seen the previous work of John Hawkes, they'd be just as amazed at his transformation. He portrays a loose cannon from the Ozarks who can be intensely frightening, but Hawkes manages to throw multiple dimensions in his performance, creating a very memorable character.

Snubbed: Matt Damon! Matt Damon! Matt Damon! His hilariously offbeat performance in True Grit was one of the great cinematic treats of the year. It is an especially egregious snub when considering that he was nominated last year for an incredibly bland performance in Invictus.


Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle)
The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
Winter's Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini)


Will Win: The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin's victory here is almost as much a lock as Firth in Lead Actor.

Should Win: I didn't love The Social Network as much as most people, but there's no denying Sorkin's screenplay was amazing and deserving of its eventual victory.

Snubbed: Laeta Kalogridis' sharp adaptation of Dennis Lehane's novel Shutter Island set up the perfect structure to allow Martin Scorsese to work his magic.


Original Screenplay

Another Year (Mike Leigh)
The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy)
Inception (Christopher Nolan)
The Kids are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko)
The King's Speech (David Seidler)

Will Win: There's no reason to think The King's Speech won't take top honors here. It's certainly a much better choice than last year's The Hurt Locker.

Should Win: Um, Inception. If there's one major upset I'm rooting for on Oscar night the most, it is that Nolan gets recognized for his incredibly original and very complex screenplay.

Snubbed: Nicole Holofcener's Please Give was one of the best films of the year and completely overlooked during awards season. Her script (which made the cut at the WGA awards) should've been included here.



Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Will Win: Toy Story 3. No reason to think Pixar won't continue its dominance in this category.

Should Win: Toy Story 3. No reason to think Pixar doesn't deserve continue its dominance in this category.

Snubbed: Disney's Tangled was a nice surprise. Lovely animation and a winning story.


Achievement in Cinematography

Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (Wally Pfister)
The King's Speech (Danny Cohen)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)

Will Win: True Grit
Should Win: True Grit
Snubbed: Shutter Island


Achievement in Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Snubbed: Shutter Island


Achievement in Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
I Am Love (Antonella Cannarozzi)
The King's Speech (Jenny Beaven)
The Tempest (Sandy Powell)
True Grit (Mary Zophres)

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
Snubbed: Black Swan


Best Documentary Feature

Exit through the Gift Shop (Banksy)
Gasland (Josh Fox)
Inside Job (Charles Ferguson, director)
Restrepo (Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger)
Waste Land (Lucy Walker)

Will Win: Restrepo
Should Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Snubbed: 9500 Liberty


Achievement in Film Editing

Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
The Fighter (Pamela Martin)
The King's Speech (Tariq Anwar)
127 Hours (Jon Harris)
The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: 127 Hours
Snubbed: Inception (If it wasn't such a minor award, this would go down as one of the biggest snubs in Oscar history)


Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
127 Hours (A.R. Rahman)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Inception
Snubbed: Tangled


Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

"Coming Home" from Country Strong Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
"I See the Light" from Tangled Music and Lyric by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Will Win: "I See the Light", Tangled
Should Win: "I See the Light", Tangled


Achievement in Sound Editing

Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Snubbed: Iron Man 2


Achievement in Sound Mixing

Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Snubbed: Shutter Island


Achievement in Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Snubbed: Tron: Legacy (Still trying to figure this one out?)


Best Short Film (Live Action)

The Confession (Tanel Toom)
The Crush (Michael Creagh)
God of Love (Luke Matheny)
Na Wewe (Ivan Goldschmidt)
Wish 143 (Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite)


Will Win: The Confession
Should Win: God of Love
Snubbed: Ana's Playground (Eric D. Howell)


Best Short Film (Animated)

Day & Night (Teddy Newton)
The Gruffalo (Jakob Schuh and Max Lang)
Let's Pollute (Geefwee Boedoe)
The Lost Thing (Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann)
Madagascar, a Journey Diary (Bastien Duboi)

Will Win: Day & Night
Should Win: The Gruffalo
Snubbed: Prayers for Peace (Dustin Grella)


Note: I did not include selection for the Foreign Film (I've only seen one nominee) or Makeup (I've seen none) categories. I have not yet seen the Best Documentary Shorts, but will do so before the Oscars and add them to this post at that time.

Waiting for Superman (Davis Guggenheim, 2010) **1/2

No film this year created such strong mixed reactions for me as this one. Davis Guggenheim is clearly a filmmaker of consummate skill and at times Waiting For Superman reaches incredible heights of cinematic greatness. It is certainly a thought provoking film that asks tough questions and sheds an uncomfortable light on the failure of our education system. It also depicts the heartbreaking individual plight of several children (and their families) who are hoping for a better chance at the future. However, the film falters in the one dimensional manner in which it places blame and the misleading manner in which it seeks a solution. 

Waiting For Superman documents the problems with the education system in the United States. It does so by showing how test scores have become stagnant despite spending increases, how our rankings compared to the rest of the world are atrocious, and the roadblocks faced by several reformers trying to improve the system. Guggenheim highlights these issues by showing the personal stories of five students who are hoping to get accepted to a charter school and interweaving this by interviews with reformers such as DC Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee and charter school CEO Geoffrey Canada.

So far, so good. The film is powerfully persuasive when examining the many ways in which our system isn't working. The personal stories are fascinating. It's hard not to root for a better future for these children. The film also contains one of the most unforgettable scenes I've ever seen in a documentary. We see several lotteries being run by school districts to determine which kids get a chance to attend the local charter school. The families are sitting there, living and dying as every name or number is called. A little girl keeps mentioning that they're not mentioning her name. This is amazing stuff and it is vividly depicted by Guggenheim.

The question becomes who is at fault and what do we do about it. And this is where things get problematic. The main problem that our education system has, Guggenheim tells us, is the imposing strength of teacher tenure and the inability of reformers to get rid of poor teachers. The teachers unions are depicted as this big selfish group that cares more about their own interests than those of their students. The film presents  us a hero in committed reformer Michelle Rhee butting heads with teachers unions over her proposal to weaken tenure in exchange for better pay. The film presents this as a one sided battle that Rhee loses, ending all hope in the district. But the film leaves out the fact that the union did accept Rhee's proposal in their most recent contract and the improved test scores that Rhee boasts about happened well before the tenure changes. There's no doubt that tenure is one problem in our education system and reforming that would be a good idea, but Waiting For Superman unfairly makes the unions scapegoats for the entire failure of our education system.

Guggenheim is also misleading about the proposed solutions. Geoffrey Canada makes compelling points and is a captivating presence on screen. The Harlem Children's Zone has done great work for inner city students and shows terrific results on standardized testing. I have no doubts that he is a great educator. What's wrong is that Guggeinheim spends a majority of the film mentioning how increased spending hasn't worked, yet successful schools like Canada's receive tons of money in private funding, something that would not be realistic or consistent on a nationwide scale. To realize the dream charter system that would supposedly reshape our entire education system, vast increases in spending would clearly be required. This is problematic given the current political climate. Acknowledging this problem and looking at some more specific areas of reform (i.e. why do some charters underperform, what methods are the good ones using) would have made for a far more substantive examination of the issue.

I do think Waiting for Superman is a worthwhile film. It brings an important issue to light and will certainly inspire strong discussions among viewers that need to take place. The lottery scene is one of the more astonishing pieces of filmmaking from 2010. It's just unfortunate that the film gets mired in a repetitive and one sided attack against teacher's unions, masking other issues and potential solutions to the problem. When the Oscar nominees were announced, Waiting for Superman's failure to be nominated for Best Documentary was constantly cited as one of the biggest snubs of the year. I can't help but think that despite Guggeinheim's good intentions, this is one time where the Academy got it right.