Here are my predictions for the 2012 Academy Awards, which take place this Sunday.
Should Win is my pick for the best among the nominees.
Will Win is who I think the Academy will pick.
Snubbed is the best potential nominee that the Academy passed over. I excluded categories where I had not seen enough of the nominees.
Best Picture
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"The Help"
"Moneyball"
"War Horse"
"The Tree of Life"
Should Win: In a rather underwhelming year for Best Picture nominees, I'd only consider two of them to be great, with a slight preference for fascinating character study and skillfully conceived silent film
The Artist, but I'd have no problem with a win for The Descendants.
Will Win:
The Artist has won all the major Oscar precursors except for the SAG awards, but that was an ensemble acting win for The Help, which (thankfully) does not have a chance at Best Picture.
Snubbed:
Drive was a terrific modern crime thriller with a brilliant artistic vision and iconic performances, but was probably too violent for Academy voters that seemed to be trying to pick the safest group of nominees ever.
Best Actor
Demian Bichir, "A Better Life"
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
Should Win: Probably the best category of the year as all five nominees were terrific, but
George Clooney gave one of the best performances of his great career as a decent man trying to make sense of a turbulent family situation.
Will Win: Clooney seemed to be the frontrunner here until he was upended at the SAG awards by
Jean Dujardin, who later followed that up with a BAFTA victory. Clooney still might win, but it's bad to bet against the SAG.
Snubbed
: Ryan Gosling (Drive) says very little, but his quietly mesmerizing presence makes for one of the most memorable film characters in a long time.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"
Should Win
: For the second year in a row,
Michelle Williams has given the best performance among the nominated actresses with her wonderful depiction of screen legend Marilyn Monroe.
Will Win: This is a two person race between Streep and Davis. Streep won the Golden Globe and Davis took home the SAG victory. When in doubt go with the SAG, so
Viola Davis it is.
Snubbed: Her co-star Melissa McCarthy received far more attention throughout the awards season, but
Kristen Wiig gave a performance with much more depth, while managing to be every bit as funny.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
Should Win: One of the weakest categories here, with two nominees (Nolte, Sydow) that have no business being nominated. Of the rest,
Christopher Plummer gives the best performance as a man who didn't start living his life as he wanted until it was nearly over.
Will Win: One of the easiest predictions of the night.
Christopher Plummer has won every single major pre-Oscars award.
Snubbed:
Albert Brooks (Drive) took a big risk playing against type as a levelheaded gangster with the capability to be ruthless when it is warranted and it paid off as he gave the best performance of his career.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Should Win: I thought The Help was a poorly directed film that played up Hollywood's fascination with white people saving minorities, but that's no reflection on the beautiful performances from
Octavia Spencer and the rest of the cast.
Will Win: Like Plummer,
Octavia Spencer has won every major pre-Oscars award and it would be a major upset if the didn't take home the trophy.
Snubbed:
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) was the year's biggest revelation with a multifaceted performance that matched her legendary co-star every step of the way.
Best Director
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
Should Win:
Michel Hazanavicus did a brilliant job of capturing the spirit of the silent era, while also crafting a fascinating story about a man's fall from the top of Hollywood to utter despair.
Will Win: DGA winner
Michel Hazanavicus is a pretty sure thing as the DGA champ has won the last 8 Best Director Oscars and 57 out of 63 overall.
Snubbed: Every artistic decision made by
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive) was perfect, employing a slick visual style that never overshadowed his fascinating characters.
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
JC Chandor, "Margin Call"
Asghar Farhadi, "A Separation"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, "Bridesmaids"
Should Win:
Bridesmaids was not only completely hilarious, but found surprising depth about human relationships amidst all the outrageous humor.
Will Win:
Midnight in Paris was Woody Allen's most lauded film in a long time and he's certain to take home a 4th Oscar for his creative and romantic screenplay.
Snubbed: Sean Durkin's
Martha Marcy May Marlene was completely ignored by the Oscars, but it was a stunningly original depiction of a woman haunted by her past.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash, "The Descendants"
John Logan, "Hugo"
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, "The Ides of March"
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, "Moneyball"
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughn, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Should Win: Aaron Sorkin took
Moneyball, a book about intricate baseball statistics and somehow structured it into a compelling underdog story. The Ricardo Rincon trade is one of the year's best individual scenes.
Will Win: Sorkin could very well take home his second consecutive Oscar, but the WGA went with
The Descendants and so will I.
Snubbed: Cameron Crowe's wildly underrated
We Bought a Zoo once again showcased the writer-director's unique ability to combine humor, sentiment, and wholly original individual moments into a richly rewarding film experience.
Original Score
"The Adventures of Tintin," John Williams
"The Artist," Ludovic Bource
"Hugo," Howard Shore
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," Alberto Iglesias
"War Horse," John Williams
Should Win:
The Artist
Will Win:
The Artist
Snubbed:
We Bought a Zoo
Best Original Song
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets; Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio," Rio; Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown, Lyric by Siedah Garrett
Will Win:
"Man or Muppet", The Muppets
Should Win:
"Man or Muppet", The Muppets
Snubbed:
"Pictures in My Head", The Muppets
Best Achievement in Art Direction
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"War Horse"
Should Win:
Hugo
Will Win:
Hugo
Snubbed:
The Muppets
Best Achievement in Cinematography
"The Artist"
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"The Tree of Life"
"War Horse"
Should Win:
The Tree of Life
Will Win:
The Tree of Life
Snubbed:
Drive
Best Achievement in Film Editing
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Moneyball"
Should Win:
The Artist
Will Win:
The Artist
Snubbed:
Drive
Best Achievement in Makeup
"Albert Nobbs"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"The Iron Lady"
Should Win:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Will Win:
The Iron Lady
Snubbed:
X-Men: First Class
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
"Drive"
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
"War Horse"
Should Win:
Drive
Will Win:
Hugo
Snubbed:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Moneyball"
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
"War Horse"
Should Win:
Hugo
Will Win:
Hugo
Snubbed:
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Real Steel"
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
Should Win:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Will Win:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Snubbed:
X-Men: First Class
