Oscar Watch: Screen Actors Guild Awards

 Octavia Spencer, Viola Davis lead The Help to 4 total nominations.

List of nominees, with my comments at the end:




Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Demián Bichir - A Better Life as Carlos Galindo
    George Clooney - The Descendants as Matt King
    Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar as J. Edgar Hoover
    Jean Dujardin - The Artist as George Valentin
    Brad Pitt - Moneyball as Billy Beane

 Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs as Albert Nobbs
    Viola Davis - The Help as Aibileen Clark
    Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady as Margaret Thatcher
    Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin as Eva Khatchadourian
    Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn as Marilyn Monroe

 Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn as Laurence Olivier
    Armie Hammer - J. Edgar as Clyde Tolson
    Jonah Hill - Moneyball as Peter Brand
    Nick Nolte - Warrior as Paddy Conlon
    Christopher Plummer - Beginners as Hal

 Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Bérénice Bejo - The Artist as Peppy Miller
    Jessica Chastain - The Help as Celia Foote
    Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids as Megan
    Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs as Hubert Page
    Octavia Spencer - The Help as Minny Jackson

 Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

The Artist

Bérénice Bejo, James Cromwell, Jean Dujardin, John Goodman, and Penelope Ann Miller

Bridesmaids

Rose Byrne, Jill Clayburgh, Ellie Kemper, Matt Lucas, Melissa McCarthy, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Chris O'Dowd, Maya Rudolph, and Kristen Wiig

  The Descendants

Beau Bridges, George Clooney, Robert Forster, Judy Greer, Matthew Lillard, and Shailene Woodley

The Help

Jessica Chastain, Viola Davis, Bryce Dallas Howard, Allison Janney, Chris Lowell, Ahna O'Reilly, Sissy Spacek, Octavia Spencer, Mary Steenburgen, Emma Stone, Cicely Tyson, and Mike Vogel


Midnight In Paris

Kathy Bates, Adrien Brody, Carla Bruni, Marion Cotillard, Rachel McAdams, Michael Sheen, and Owen Wilson


 Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    The Adjustment Bureau
    Cowboys & Aliens
    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
    Transformers: Dark of the Moon
    X-Men: First Class


The Screen Actors Guild is often one of the more reliable Oscar predictors. For example, last year 17 of the 20 nominees went on to the Oscars. Of the three that didn't, two were performers that hadn't received support outside of the SAG (Duvall, Swank) and only Mila Kunis' failure to get an Oscar nom was surprising. So for those SAG nominees this year who have already been getting recognition from the various critics groups, they are probably golden. Among that group would include Clooney, Dujardin, and Pitt in Lead Actor; Streep, Swinton, Williams in Lead Actress; Plummer in Supporting Actor; and Jessica Chastain in Supporting Actress.

Outside of that, there were more than a few surprises, most notably dual acting nominations for the negatively reviewed J. Edgar. Dicaprio took a spot thought to be reserved for La Film Critics winner Michael Fassbender, while Armie Hammer took a spot that belonged to NY Film Critics winner Albert Brooks. Melissa McCarthy getting nominated for her hilarious turn in Bridesmaids is a pleasant surprise (as is the shocking Ensemble cast nomination for the film). The most glaring omission from Supporting Actress is Shailene Woodley from The Descendants, but that will be a difficult category with multiple potential nominees from The Help.

The SAGs have a Best Ensemble category instead of Best Film, but it essentially works the same way and is often a good predictor. The previous two years with the expansion to 10 Oscar nominees, only one nominee (Nine) in this category has failed to get an Oscar Best Picture nomination. However, this year's Oscar rules changed and there could be anywhere from 5-10 nominees. That makes me think Bridesmaids will not get a Best Pic nomination (although I'd be overjoyed if it did). Of the other four nominees, three of them are locks for a Best Picture nomination (The Artist, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris) with The Help as a very likely nominee.

Note: I did not go through the TV nominees as that is outside of the focus of this blog, but I am baffled at the absence of Homeland and Claire Danes, not to mention Parks and Recreation, Amy Poehler, and Nick Offerman. Instead they had to find room to nominate Kathy Bates, Patrick J. Adams, and Jon Cryer. Inexcusable!