Oscar Watch: National Board of Review Awards

Best Film: Hugo
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Best Foreign Film: A Separation
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Ensemble Cast: The Help
Breakthrough Performance: Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Spotlight Award: Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, Shame, X-Men: First Class
Spotlight Award for Best Directorial Debut: J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Best Original Screenplay: Will Reiser, 50/50
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants
Special Filmmaking Achievement Award: The Harry Potter franchise, for "a distinguished translation from Book to Film"
NBR Freedom of Expression: Crime After Crime, Pariah

Top 10 Films:

    Hugo
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    Drive
    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
    The Ides of March
    J. Edgar
    The Tree of Life
    War Horse

Top 5 Foreign Films

    13 Assassins
    Elite Squad: The Enemy Within
    Footnote
    Le Havre
    Point Blank

Top Documentaries

    Born to Be Wild
    Buck
    George Harrison: Living in the Material World
    Project Nim
    Senna

Top Independent Films

    50/50
    Another Earth
    Beginners
    A Better Life
    Cedar Rapids
    Margin Call
    Shame
    Take Shelter
    We Need To Talk About Kevin
    Win Win

The National Board of Review Awards have been in effect since 1929. They are often considered one of the less legitimate awards groups due to a random, unknown roster of members. Despite that reputation, they are annually acknowledged as one of the major awards season announcements. They have a very good track record at predicting nominees with an 81.8% success rate over the last 10 years.

The good news for Scorsese and Hugo is that the NBR Best Film has been nominated in each of the last 10 years. With the incredibly strong reviews and word of mouth, there's no reason to think Hugo won't continue that trend. Clooney is pretty a guaranteed lock for a nomination any year he gives a lauded performance, so you can already pencil him in for his work in The Descendants. Previous nominee Plummer seems like a good bet with a film that received great reviews. I'm less certain about Swinton (film hasn't opened yet) and Woodley (age).

Unlike many other groups, the NBR also hands out top 10 lists for best of the year. There are some surprises in this list. J. Edgar has received very poor reviews, while The Ides of March reviews have been good, but not great. I do not expect either of them to be a factor in the Best Picture race.  Nor would I expect to see The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo or Drive. Deathly Hallows Part 2 might get in due to incredibly strong reviews and as a way to reward the overall accomplishment of the series, but I'm not counting on it just yet.